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Roger Federer’s success at the Australian Open is undeniable. The 37-year-old holds six titles at the year’s first major, which is tied for the tournament record with Novak Djokovic and Roy Emerson. The Swiss had reached at least the semi-finals in 14 of the past 15 years.
But on Sunday evening, Federer lost in the fourth round. Despite having four chances to take a two-set lead against reigning Next Gen ATP Finals champion Stefanos Tsitsipas, the third seed could not battle through, as the 20-year-old took advantage of the small opening in front of him to work his way into the match and eventually reach his maiden Grand Slam quarter-final.
“I lost to a better player who was playing very well tonight. Hung in there, gave himself chances at some point, stayed calm,” said Federer, who will drop from the Top 5 of the ATP Rankings on 28 January. “It's not always easy, especially for younger guys. Credit to him for taking care of that.”
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Tsitsipas made a massive breakthrough in 2018, climbing from No. 91 in the ATP Rankings to No. 15, earning his maiden ATP Tour title in Stockholm and triumphing in Milan. His dream run to the Rogers Cup championship match earlier in the year was unforgettable. But despite this being a night match on Rod Laver Arena, Tsitsipas stepped out into the sun.
“I see him definitely being high up in the game for a long time,” Federer said. “That was a good night for him tonight.”
Glaringly, Federer was unable to convert on all 12 break points he earned in the match. In the second set, the Swiss had eight opportunities, but could not take advantage of any of them. The 12 opportunities he missed out on are the most break points Federer has ever failed to convert without breaking. The four set-point chances he missed out on were also crucial, allowing Tsitsipas to gain a foothold in the battle.Most Break Points Federer Has Earned Without Converting
 Year
 Event
 Opponent
 Break Points Converted
 2019
 Australian Open
 Stefanos Tsitsipas
 0/12
 2012
 London Olympics
 Andy Murray
 0/9
 2001
 US Open
 Andre Agassi
 0/9
 2006 
 Mutua Madrid Open
 Robin Soderling
 0/8
 2011
 Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
 Jurgen Melzer
 0/7
 2001
 Erste Bank Open 500
 Stefan Koubek
 0/7
*No stats available for all Davis Cup matches and 2000, 2004 Olympics“I have massive regrets tonight. I might not look the part, but I am,” Federer said. “I felt like I have to win the second set. I don't care how I do it, but I have to do it. Cost me the game tonight.”
Perhaps the question is simple: how did that happen? Federer entered the match in great form, winning all nine of his sets in the first three rounds with little difficulty. He proved opportunistic in those clashes as well, converting 10 of 23 break points he earned through the third round.
“There is always multiple factors that play into a match like this. But it definitely didn't go the way I was hoping on the break points,” Federer said. “Clearly something is wrong how I return him, what I'm trying to do. He's doing a good job to defend them. Nevertheless, it's very frustrating.
“He did a nice job of taking care of his half volleys. That's maybe what won him the match tonight, I'm not sure.”
Federer departs Australia after missing the semi-finals of a fourth consecutive Grand Slam (did not play at 2018 Roland Garros), the first time that has happened to the Swiss since making the last four at a major for the first time at 2003 Wimbledon, where he also claimed his maiden Slam title. But the 99-time tour-level titlist gave plenty of credit to Tsitsipas, who will now play Doha champion Roberto Bautista Agut for a spot in the last four. The Greek began 2018 with four tour-level match wins and now, after his four victories in Melbourne, Tsitsipas has 55.
“I think he's definitely done a really nice job now the last year and a half. I mean before that, too, obviously. But beating Novak [Djokovic] in Toronto, the likes of [Kevin] Anderson and [Alexander] Zverev, now me here. That's what you need to do to get to the next level,” Federer said. “He's doing that. It's really nice for him.”
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Before each day's play at the Australian Open, we'll preview three must-see matches.
Simona Halep vs. Serena Williams
Halep was honest in her assessment of this blockbuster fourth-rounder. “In this moment, I’m No. 1 in the world,” she said. “But for sure she’s the best player in the world because she won so many Grand Slams.”
The stats say that Serena should be the solid, if not overwhelming, favorite in this match: She’s won 23 majors to Halep’s one, and she leads their head to head 8-1. Halep’s lone win came in the round-robin phase of the 2014 WTA Finals in Singapore, but even that was technically canceled out, because Serena came back to beat her in the final—6-3, 6-0—later that week.
Still, being the underdog, which she rarely is these days, should help Halep relax and swing away. Like she said, she’s No. 1, but she has little to lose, at least when the match begins. And it shouldn’t be forgotten that it has been two years since Serena won a Slam, a period of time in which Halep has reached the finals of three and won one.
Serves and returns will be key: How much will Serena be able to rely on her serve to bail her out of jams? Will Halep be able to avoid having her own second serve belted past her? After those two shots, the rallies should be fun, and competitive.
Winner: S. Williams
Madison Keys vs. Elina Svitolina
The American and the Ukrainian must be thinking that if Naomi Osaka can go all the way at a major, there’s no reason why they can’t, too. Both have been at the top of the Most Likely to Win a Slam list for a few years, but just when it looks as they’re ready to cash in, they don’t. How about this time? Keys is coming off a season in which she reached two Grand Slam semifinals and a quarterfinal, and Svitolina is coming off the biggest title of her career, at the WTA Finals.
Based on head-to-head history and form over the past week, Keys should be the favorite. She has won both of their previous meetings, one of which was a stirring three-setter at the US Open in 2017. While Svitolina struggled mightily to oust Shuai Zhang in the third round, Keys cruised past a quality opponent in Elise Mertens. If Svitolina can get her teeth into this one, complicate the rallies, and make it a dogfight, she can win. Otherwise, I’ll take the bigger hitter.
Winner: Keys
Alexander Zverev vs. Milos Raonic
The German and the Canadian seem to have redemption on their minds Down Under. Judging by the hype and hope that has surrounded them both over the last five years, you’d think one of them would own a major title by now. But neither does: Zverev is among the world’s best everywhere else, but he’s a perpetual disappointment at the Slams. Meanwhile, Raonic’s once-methodical ascent has been halted by a bewildering list of injuries.
So far in Oz, Zverev has survived a potentially disastrous five-setter against Jeremy Chardy, and Raonic has been steely in a four-tiebreaker win over Stan Wawrinka and a straight-set win over Nick Kyrgios. He and Zverev have met once before at a Slam, at Wimbledon in 2017; Zverev led, but Raonic eventually won in five. Could we see something similar happen on Sunday?
Winner: Raonic
Kickoff each day of the 2019 Australian Open with Tennis Channel Live, reviewing the day's most important news and previewing the day's biggest matches. Watch LIVE at 6 p.m. ET.
Follow the Australian Open even closer with Tennis Channel PLUS. Go to BuyTCPlus.com and subscribe now!

Stefanos Tsitsipas faced four set points to trail Roger Federer by two sets at the Australian Open on Sunday, but rallied in dramatic fashion to defeat the two-time defending champion 6-7(11), 7-6(3), 7-5, 7-6(5) for the biggest win of his career.
Serving at 4-5 in the second set, the #NextGenATP Greek held his nerve to save all four set points before securing a stunning victory after three hours and 45 minutes. Tsitsipas served 20 aces and saved all 12 break points he faced to reach his first Grand Slam quarter-final. The World No. 15 becomes the first Greek player to reach the last eight at a Grand Slam and moves into second place on the list for most Grand Slam wins by a Greek man (9).
The 20-year-old Tsitsipas also becomes the youngest Australian Open quarter-finalist since Nick Kyrgios (19 years, 280 days) in 2015. Last year, Tsitsipas became the second winner of the Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan, following in the footsteps of inaugural champion Hyeon Chung. Last year, Chung also used his win in Milan as a platform for success in Melbourne, reaching his first Grand Slam semi-final (l. to Federer).
Federer was aiming to become the oldest Australian Open quarter-finalist since Ken Rosewall (43) in 1977. The two-time defending champion entered the match on a 17-match winning streak at Melbourne Park.
Tsitsipas will face Roberto Bautista Agut of Spain, for the first time at tour-level, in the quarter-finals. The Doha champion defeated last year's runner-up Marin Cilic 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 after three hours and 58 minutes.
In a tight opening set which lasted 58 minutes, Federer was unable to convert the only two break points on offer in the opening game. After saving three set points at 7/6, 9/8 and 11/10 by taking time away from his opponent with strong serving and net approaches, Federer converted his fourth set point with a commanding cross-court forehand that Tsitsipas was unable to control.
Federer served impeccably throughout the second set to pile the pressure onto his opponent's service games, but Tsitsipas played without fear in crucial moments. The 20-year-old saved eight break points, including four set points at 4-5, to reach a second tie-break. The #NextGenATP Greek proved comfortable transitioning up the court to rush Federer, who made a series of forehand errors in tight moments.
After splitting the opening six points of the tie-break, Tsitsipas found success when he needed it most. The 20-year-old fired multiple forehand winners and forced Federer into errors to snatch four straight points and level the match.
Both men continued to find their spots on serve in the third set, with neither man able to convert break points in their fourth return games as a third tie-break appeared to be on the horizon. But Tsitsipas grabbed the only break of the match, after two hours and 54 minutes, following three consecutive forehand errors from Federer.
In a fourth set dominated by serve, Tsitsipas found himself a tie-break away from victory shortly after holding his 24th straight service game of the match. After Federer fired a forehand long at 5/5, Tsitsipas closed out the match on his first match point with a driven cross-court forehand.

In his 10th Grand Slam fourth-round appearance, Roberto Bautista Agut finally reached his first major quarter-final on Sunday at the Australian Open.
The 30-year-old Spaniard defeated last year's runner-up Marin Cilic 6-7(6), 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4, after three hours and 58 minutes, to record his second victory in six FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings against the Croatian. Unbeaten in 2019, Bautista Agut joins Alex de Minaur at the top of the list for most tour-level match wins this year (9). In the opening week of the 2019 season, Bautista Agut claimed his ninth ATP Tour title at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open, beating Stan Wawrinka, Novak Djokovic and Tomas Berdych in consecutive matches to lift the trophy.
Bautista Agut also needed five sets to beat Andy Murray and John Millman in the opening two rounds in Melbourne, before defeating 10th seed Karen Khachanov in straight sets. The 22nd seed will meet two-time defending champion Roger Federer or #NextGenATP Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas for a place in the semi-finals. Bautista Agut is yet to beat Federer in eight FedEx ATP Head2Head meetings and has never faced Tsitsipas at tour-level.
After dropping his serve at 4-4 in the opening set, Cilic increased his aggression to charge back. The Croatian hit with greater power and moved up the court to reach 5-5, before taking control of the tie-break. After failing to convert four set points from 6/2, Cilic trusted his forehand on back-to-back points to take the first set.
But Bautista Agut responded in the second set, proving the more consistent player in baseline rallies to earn the only break, at 4-3, and level the match. The Spaniard carried the momentum into the third set, varying the pace on his groundstrokes to extract baseline errors from his opponent. Bautista Agut won eight of nine second-serve return points to gain two service breaks and move one set from the quarter-finals.
Cilic responded well in the fourth set, dropping just seven points behind his serve to reach 5-4. The 2014 US Open champion then capitalised on a series of unforced errors before hitting his 14th winner of the set, on his forehand, to level the match.
But it was to be Bautista Agut's day, as the Spaniard benefitted from two double faults in the ninth game of the decider before breaking serve with a forehand winner. The Doha champion then served out the match to 15 after rushing Cilic into a backhand error.
Cilic was aiming to equal Goran Ivanisevic’s records for most Australian Open (3) and Grand Slam (14) quarter-final appearances by a Croatian man.

Rafael Nadal turned in one of the more dominant performances of his career on Sunday, streaking past Tomas Berdych in their fourth round encounter at the Australian Open.
Nadal took the Round of 16 meeting 6-0, 6-1, 7-6(4) in a mere two hours and five minutes, barely putting a foot wrong to rout the former World No. 4. Berdych has impressed in his return to action from a back injury, but he was no match for the 2009 champion on a sun-kissed Sunday afternoon.
With the victory, Nadal advances to his 11th Australian Open quarter-final, claiming sole ownership of second place for most appearances in the last eight at Melbourne Park. He also surpassed Andre Agassi for fourth place on the list of most Grand Slam quarter-finals, reaching his 37th in total at the major level.
Nadal won the first nine games, sprinting to a 6-0, 3-0 lead on Rod Laver Arena, before Berdych finally got on the scoreboard. The Spaniard's agility and penetrating shotmaking rattled the Czech throughout the encounter, and he refused to allow him to find any rhythm from the back of the court.
Contesting the ninth match in his comeback, Berdych was visibly fatigued and Nadal capitalised. The Manacor native fired 32 winners, including five aces, while denying both break points faced.
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It was Nadal's 20th match win in their FedEx ATP Head2Head series, improving to 20-4. He exacted revenge on Berdych after the Czech prevailed in straight sets in the 2015 quarter-finals. Nadal has now recorded 20 match wins against four players: Berdych, David Ferrer (25), Novak Djokovic (24) and Roger Federer (23).
Competing in his first tournament since the US Open, Nadal is looking as healthy as ever as he continues to blitz the Melbourne field. He has won a perfect 12 of 12 sets through his first four matches, also including impressive performances against a trio of Aussies - James Duckworth, Matthew Ebden and Alex de Minaur.
Next up for the World No. 2 is #NextGenATP American Frances Tiafoe. It will be their first meeting.
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What's the best birthday gift Frances Tiafoe could give himself? How about a first Grand Slam quarter-final at the Australian Open.
Tiafoe made a massive statement on one of the game's biggest stages, punching his ticket into the last eight at Melbourne Park on Sunday. On his 21st birthday, the #NextGenATP star upset 20th seed Grigor Dimitrov 7-5, 7-6(6), 6-7(1), 7-5 to secure his spot in the quarters.
If there was any doubt of Tiafoe's arrival, the Maryland native stepped up in the big moments and played the match of his young career. He is the youngest American to reach the Australian Open quarter-finals since a 20-year-old Andy Roddick advanced to the semis in 2003.
Tiafoe fired 63 winners in total to prevail after three hours and 39 minutes, setting a quarter-final clash against Rafael Nadal. It has been a breakout fortnight for the World No. 39, having earned the biggest win of his young career (by ATP Ranking) over sixth-ranked Kevin Anderson in the second round, followed by his first five-set win over Andreas Seppi, before stunning Dimitrov.
It was a picture perfect Sunday afternoon on Melbourne Arena and Tiafoe would fight through a gritty opening set to take the early lead. They would exchange leads as the set progressed, but it was a more energetic and aggressive Tiafoe who eventually captured the opener after 52 minutes. And with his back against the wall in the second set, the 21-year-old would show immense poise under pressure.
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Tiafoe clawed back from a 4-2 deficit to force a tie-break, where he would save a pair of set points. A sublime half-volley drop shot swung the match to his corner. Unrattled and dialed in, Tiafoe exhibited his growing maturity as he snatched a two-set lead.
Dimitrov would not go down without a fight. With Tiafoe in firm control up two sets and a break, his Bulgarian opponent found a second gear. Trailing 2-4, proceedings would suddenly shift to Dimitrov's side of the net, as he broke right back and seized control in improbable fashion. He would take the ensuing tie-break and seemed to be on his way to a stunning comeback.
But this was Tiafoe's day and, despite calling for the physio for muscle cramps, he would not acquiesce to defeat. With Dimitrov leading 5-4 in the fourth set, Tiafoe reeled off 12 of the last 14 points to clinch the victory.
Tiafoe got his revenge on Dimitrov following the Bulgarian's victory at the Rogers Cup last year, where he survived in a third-set tie-break. He will next face Rafael Nadal in what will be his first meeting with the World No. 2. 
Tiafoe's victory also marks the second straight year in which an American has reached the last eight at the Australian Open, with Tennys Sandgren achieving the feat in 2018.
Meanwhile, Dimitrov's first Grand Slam alongside new coach Andre Agassi concludes with a Round of 16 finish. He has reached the fourth round in Melbourne in five of the past six years. The 2017 Nitto ATP Finals champion is targeting a return to the Top 10 this year with Agassi in his corner, having entered the tournament at No. 21 in the ATP Rankings.
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During a preseason training session, Rafael Nadal’s physiotherapist, Rafael Maymo, whipped out his iPhone while Rafa executed a serve as coach Carlos Moya looked on. It wasn’t that Maymo was distracted and or tending to a text message; instead, he was recording the 17-time Grand Slam champion’s serve. Immediately after, the player and his coaches huddled on the sidelines to watch the video. The purpose: To analyze, frame by frame, the mechanics of his swing. Video is just one tool the team is utilizing in the hopes of producing a more potent serve and improve his overall game.
“We record video, then review each frame with Rafa to get his thoughts on our progress,” Moya said ahead of his charge’s fourth-round match against Tomas Berdych at the Australian Open on Sunday. “The tweaks we’ve made so far might appear small, but we consider them as fundamental improvements. As a team, we’re constantly modifying the execution of his serve to get it to where we want it to be.”
Francisco Roig, also coach to the World No. 2, watched the videos shot during those practice workouts at the Rafa Nadal Academy by Movistar in Mallorca, Spain, via WhatsApp. Despite being over 100 miles away in Barcelona at the time, Roig was still able to provide input on how to revamp the swing to produce more velocity and put opponents on the back foot by studying those videos. 
On top of video analysis, statistical analysis has also been an integral part of Team Rafa’s quest to constantly improve. And no one is better at making sense of stats than coach Moya. After his retirement in 2010, the former World No. 1 made his coaching debut during the 2016 season, helping Milos Raonic climb to No. 3 in the ATP Rankings and guiding him to the Wimbledon final. When Moya and Raonic parted ways 11 months later, Moya agreed to join Nadal’s team, bringing with him a wealth of knowledge and ideas. The addition of Moya breathed new life into his countryman’s career. 
One of Moya’s goals from the outset was to avoid any dips in form as a season wore on by molding Nadal into a more aggressive player. He proposed a less grueling schedule with fewer tournaments and a nutritional regimen that would result in lower weight without burning muscle. To achieve the next level of transformation, though, Moya surrounded himself with data and devoured all the stats he could find following Nadal’s matches. 
“I've always liked using technology, but in my time as a player there was not much access to data,” said Moya. “In this area, tennis was a bit behind compared to other sports, but now it has caught up. Stats are by no means the most important thing to rely on, because there are a multitude of factors that make a player who he is and what he achieves, but it definitely helps to have some knowledge to go by in terms of data when looking at our strengths and weaknesses, and of those of our rivals.”
Among one of Moya’s challenges was to get Nadal to accept technology as one method of improving, and to understand the benefit of using stats during training. By nature, Nadal has always been a player who preferred to let his instincts command his approach on the court. Slowly, however, the Spaniard is grasping the concept of how science and numbers are another way to boost his level of play and how to react in certain situations. 
“If I tell him he can sharpen one aspect of his game by doing something differently and I have data to back it up, he’s more likely to support the change,” Moya said. “If I see something that needs work, obviously my job is to point it out to Rafa — we’re always looking to hone his game.
“The added bonus of using all this information we have nowadays is that we have this intel on our opponents. Speed of serve, percentages, directions; everyone develops patterns. Maybe not those at the highest level, but in tense moments, most fall back on what they know best. If you do your homework, that’s one way of having an advantage during pressure points and not falling into a trap and just going with your gut.”
Moya is fully aware that this abundance of knowledge works both ways.
“I know there are a lot of players out there who look at Rafa’s numbers as well,” Moya said. “It’s a game of chess, even before the match starts, and you have to try and surprise your foe without going overboard. It can get crazy; you have to stay up to date and use all the information at your disposal but you also better know how to manage it. You’re seeing more and more players rely on data for an edge.”
On Saturday, Nadal and Moya practised on Court 8 of Melbourne Park to prepare for the No. 2 seed and 2009 Australian Open champion’s upcoming match against Berdych. Meanwhile, three Tennis Lab sports scientists stood in one corner of the court and gathered information from the session. Tennis Lab, in conjunction with Tennis Australia and the University of Victoria, processed data collected by cameras and sensors connected to Hawk-Eye, including the speed and trajectory of balls. After the hour-long workout and while Nadal hit the showers, Moya approached the Tennis Lab scientists to assess Nadal’s performance.
“In this era of advancement, where science and technology go hand in hand, the more information you obtain, the more power to you,” one Tennis Lab scientist said. “Mechanical changes are being made to shots. Players want to know how to avoid injury while still getting the most out of themselves.
“Among many factors, one for players over 30 years old to optimize their games is through this sort of science.”
Something Moya seems to completely understand.

For tennis players, “every day is different,” Jimmy Connors used to say. If 17-year-old Amanda Anisimova didn’t know that before this weekend, she knows it now. As brilliantly—spectacularly, perfectly—as everything went for her in her upset set win over Aryna Sabalenka on Friday, that was exactly how horribly everything went for her in her 59-minute, 6-2, 6-1 defeat at the hands of Petra Kvitova on Sunday.
Kvitova had lost to Anisimova in their only previous meeting, in Indian Wells last March, and she was obviously prepared not to let it happen again. From the start, she gave her young opponent a lesson in the fine art of how to take an opponent out of her game. Whatever Anisimova likes to do, that’s what Kvitova wouldn’t let her do.
Against Sabalenka, Anisimova dominated the rallies, flicking winners into the corners seemingly at will. Kvitova’s answer? Don’t let Anisimova get into rallies. She reduced the match to a battle of serves and returns, and never allowed Anisimova to find even the slightest bit of rhythm from the baseline.
On her serve, the Czech put the hammer down by relentlessly using her lefty slice into both courts—but especially, of course, into the ad side. Anisimova could never get a clean look at a backhand return in her strike zone, and she never found a way to counteract that serve. Does she own a slice backhand return? If not, this match is a sign that she should work on acquiring one. Kvitova made 86 percent of her first serves, won 83 percent of her first-serve points, won 60 percent of her second-serve points, and didn’t face a break point.
She was just as proactive in her return games. Kvitova attacked Anisimova’s serve relentlessly, driving the ball deep and down the middle to start, and then, as her confidence grew, into the corners for scalding winners. Kvitova used her lefty-ness to brilliant effect in general, and Anisimova had no answer for her hooking crosscourt forehand.
As for Anisimova herself, she was so overwhelmed that during those rare occasions when she got a good look at a ground stroke, she didn’t have the confidence to do anything with it. She served as poorly as Kvitova served well, and by the second set, she had lost all feel on her backhand.
Anisimova’s incandescent win over Sabalenka had a thrilling, “star is born” quality to it, not unlike Naomi Osaka’s title runs at Indian Wells and the US Open last year. Obviously, Anisimova isn’t going to do the same thing Down Under. But there was nothing wrong with getting excited about a 17-year-old—she’s three years younger than Osaka—who reaches the fourth round at a major. This loss, as much as it will sting, should teach her more about what it takes to play top-level tennis than any of her wins have.
Kvitova moves on to the quarterfinals, to play either Maria Sharapova or Ash Barty. She has followed up her title in Sydney last week with four straight-set demolitions in Melbourne. Every day is different, as Kvitova knows as well as anyone. But if she can maintain something close to her current level, there will be more good ones to come.
Kickoff each day of the 2019 Australian Open with Tennis Channel Live, reviewing the day's most important news and previewing the day's biggest matches. Watch LIVE at 6 p.m. ET.
Follow the Australian Open even closer with Tennis Channel PLUS. Go to BuyTCPlus.com and subscribe now!

The second week of play is set to begin at the Australian Open, with 16 players remaining in the year’s first Grand Slam. There is plenty of action left, though, and there could be plenty of repercussions in the ATP Rankings.
ATPTour.com looks at the most glaring changes that could happen in the ATP Rankings based on what occurs in Melbourne.Zverev Guaranteed To Reach No. 3, No. 2 A PossibilityNo matter what happens the rest of the tournament, Alexander Zverev is guaranteed to at least match his career-high of No. 3 in the ATP Rankings. Since the German reached the third round last year, he only had 90 points to defend, whereas World No. 3 Roger Federer, as defending champion, is defending 2,000 points.
Zverev has already earned 180 points (90 more than in 2018) by moving through to the fourth round. And since he only trailed Federer by 35 points in the 14 January ATP Rankings, and the Swiss cannot gain points — even if he wins the title — Zverev will move to at least No. 3.
If Zverev reaches the final, he can potentially ascend to a career-best No. 2, which would make him the first player outside of the ‘Big Four’ to occupy one of the Top 2 spots since Lleyton Hewitt on 18 July 2005. By advancing to the championship match, Zverev would force Rafael Nadal to make the semi-finals or better. Nadal can guarantee that he will remain No. 2 if he reaches the title match in Australia for the fifth time.Round-By-Round ATP Rankings Projection
 Player Australian Open Champion Finalist SF QF R16
 Rafael Nadal
 9,120
 8,320
 7,840
 7,480
 7,300
 Alexander Zverev
 8,295
 7,495
 7,015
 6,655
 6,475
Watch Zverev's Road To The 2018 Nitto ATP Finals Title:
Federer Could Fall Out Of Top 5, As Low As No. 8Since Federer is defending 2,000 points, the pressure is on for the six-time champion to make another deep run in Melbourne. If Federer fails to reach the semi-finals, he will fall outside the Top 5 for the first time since 20 March 2017.
A quarter-final showing would give Federer 4,780 points. As mentioned, World No. 4 Zverev is guaranteed to pass Federer, already guaranteeing himself at least 6,475 points. World No. 5 Juan Martin del Potro, who did not compete at the Australian Open, is locked in at 5,060 points, and World No. 6 Kevin Anderson, who lost in the second round, will have 4,845 points when the new ATP Rankings are released on 28 January.
The lowest Federer can fall after the tournament at this point is No. 8. If 2018 finalist Marin Cilic wins the title, beating Kei Nishikori in the final, and Federer loses in or before the quarter-finals, both Cilic and Nishikori will pass the 37-year-old Swiss.Federer's Round-By-Round ATP Rankings Projection
 Australian Open Champion
 Finalist
 SF
 QF
 R16
 6,420
 5,620
 5,140
 4,780
 4,600
Cilic Could Drop From The Top 10There could be a lot of movement in the ATP Rankings depending on the winner between Cilic and Doha champion Roberto Bautista Agut in the fourth. If Cilic loses, he will be in danger of falling outside the Top 10.
If Cilic advances no further, he will have 3,140 points on 28 January, which would at maximum place him at World No. 10, his lowest standing since 31 October 2016. If the Croat does go down in the fourth round, Borna Coric would be able to crack the Top 10 for the first time with a trip to at least the semi-finals. In the same scenario, if #NextGenATP Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas makes the final, he would also pass Cilic.
The following players would also surpass Cilic’s 3,140 points — should he lose to Bautista Agut — if they were to win their maiden Grand Slam trophy: Milos Raonic, Daniil Medvedev, Grigor Dimitrov, Pablo Carreno Busta, Roberto Bautista Agut and Lucas Pouille.Cilic's Round-By-Round ATP Rankings Projection
 Australian Open Champion
 Finalist
 SF
 QF
 R16
 4,960
 4,160
 3,680
 3,320
 3,140
Tsitsipas Could Crack The Top 10Reigning Next Gen ATP Finals champion Tsitsipas is into the second week of a Grand Slam for the second time, after also advancing this far at Wimbledon last year. If he should go on a dream run and claim the title in Melbourne, Tsitsipas would soar into the Top 10 of the ATP Rankings. A victory would send him to at least No. 8, while a Nishikori fourth-round loss would allow him to climb to No. 7.
How would the Greek make such an ascent? Based on Fabio Fognini (2,225 points) and Kyle Edmund’s (1,440) early losses, Tsitsipas is currently projected to reach a career-best No. 13 in the ATP Rankings. A title would give Tsitsipas — who was only defending 10 points from a 2018 first-round loss — 4,085 points on 28 January. That would put him past eliminated players Dominic Thiem (3,960), John Isner (3,155), Karen Khachanov (2,880), Fognini and Edmund, all of whom are currently ranked ahead of him.
Tsitsipas could potentially face Cilic in the quarter-finals (3,320), so he would pass the Croat as well. While Tsitsipas could potentially face Coric in the final, a championship-match appearance would give Coric 3,625 points, which would be less than Tsitsipas’ 4,085.
Keep in mind that during such a run, Tsitsipas would potentially have to face third seed Federer, sixth seed Cilic, second seed Nadal and World No. 1 Djokovic.Tsitsipas' Round-By-Round ATP Rankings Projection
 Australian Open Champion
 Finalist
 SF
 QF
 R16
 4,085
 3,285
 2,805
 2,445
 2,265
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One day after 19-year-old Canadian Denis Shapovalov pushed World No. 1 Novak Djokovic to four sets in the third round of the Australian Open, another #NextGenATP star will get a chance to face a living legend in Melbourne. Six-time champion Roger Federer will play reigning Next Gen ATP Finals titlist Stefanos Tsitsipas on Sunday with a spot in the quarter-finals on the line.
“I'm happy for him. He's playing so well, and I'm looking forward to the match-up,” Federer said. “I think it's going to be a good one. I like how he mixes up his game and also comes to the net. So will I. I think we will see some athletic attacking tennis being played.”
While Tsitsipas owns a win against top-seeded Djokovic (2018 Toronto), the Greek has yet to face Federer. The 20-year-old remembers watching the Swiss play against the likes of Djokovic and Rafael Nadal when he was a kid. So Tsitsipas is very much looking forward to standing across the net from the third seed.
“It's insane I'm in this position where I can actually play him,” Tsitsipas said. “It's really emotional.
“It's not easy to play these kind of players that you've been watching for so long and you finally get to play them. Mentally you have to be much stronger than any other match that you have faced that week."
Tsitsipas is the 14th seed, having climbed the ATP Rankings thanks to performances that include his run to last year's Rogers Cup final (l. to Nadal) and his maiden ATP Tour triumph in Stockholm. The Greek entered 2018 with just four tour-level match wins, but he proved what he's capable of by winning 46 matches last season alone.
“Having such a name like Federer on the other side, it's an extra, I would say, advantage for him, because he's done what he's done. But mentally, for players to beat him, they have to be ready and believe in themselves that... their game is great enough to beat such a player," Tsitsipas said. "I feel good. I can tell you that.”
There is plenty on the line for Federer, as the 37-year-old could become the oldest man to reach the quarter-finals at the Australian Open since 43-year-old Ken Rosewall in December 1977. As the defending champion, he also has 2,000 ATP Ranking points to defend. So if Federer loses, he will only add 180 to his total when the new ATP Rankings are released on 28 January.
Another intriguing clash will be between No. 2 seed Nadal and former World No. 4 Tomas Berdych. While this will be their 24th FedEx ATP Head2Head meeting (Nadal leads 19-4), they have not met before the quarter-finals of any tournament — with the exception of two Nitto ATP Finals matches as well as a Davis Cup battle — since the 2006 Rogers Cup.
Berdych is coming off a back injury that kept him out for seven months. But the Czech has come out firing in 2019, reaching the final at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open and showing impressive form in Melbourne. The unseeded Berdych, currently No. 57 in the ATP Rankings, has defeated 2018 semi-finalist Kyle Edmund, Robin Haase and No. 18 seed Diego Schwartzman while dropping a total of one set (against Schwartzman).
Nadal defeated tough #NextGenATP Aussie Alex de Minaur with the loss of just seven games in the third round. With that said, the Spaniard is approaching the clash like he does every match.
“I go on court every day trying my best. I know I have to play aggressive. I know I have to play with the right determination, even if it’s Alex, even if it’s Tomas,” Nadal said. “But every day's a test. Maybe every day [is] tougher. I have to be ready for it.”
Last year’s finalist, Marin Cilic, will try to keep his hopes of a second Grand Slam title alive against in-form Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut. Bautista Agut has won all eight of his matches in 2019, with four of those victories coming against players who have reached the Top 5 of the ATP Rankings.
Cilic leads their FedEx ATP Head2Head series 4-1, but Bautista Agut’s lone win came in the third round of the 2016 Australian Open in straight sets. Cilic has won all nine of the other sets they have played, with only one of those sets resulting in a score closer than 6-4.
The other fourth-round match on the bottom half of the draw pits 2017 Nitto ATP Finals winner Grigor Dimitrov against 2018 Next Gen ATP Finals qualifier Frances Tiafoe. The pair’s only previous FedEx ATP Head2Head meeting came in Toronto last year, when Dimitrov needed a third-set tie-break to defeat the American.
This is Tiafoe’s first trip to the fourth round of a major. This time last year, he had just nine tour-level wins. Now, Tiafoe is on the verge of cracking the Top 30 of the ATP Rankings.
“Everybody loves him. I think that already adds up. For sure, he's been playing really well, especially [at the] beginning of the year, [he’s] been having good results. Already a few very good wins out here in Melbourne,” Dimitrov said. “He's going to be dangerous to play. He's going to be excited. It's new ground for him. So yeah, I don't expect it to be an easy match at all.”Did You Know?If Nadal defeats Berdych, the Czech will be the fourth opponent the left-hander has won 20 matches against. The other players are David Ferrer, Djokovic and Federer.
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After six-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic defeated #NextGenATP Canadian Denis Shapovalov in four sets on Saturday, the World No. 1 told the 19-year-old that it was a pleasure to compete against him. But for Shapovalov, it was a position he strived to put himself in for a long time.
“Honestly the pleasure was all mine. To play a champion like him on a court like that in an event like this, it's a dream come true for me,” Shapovalov said. “During the match, I was smiling, enjoying my time out there. It was a lot of fun.”
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At the same time, Shapovalov does not want this to be a one-off. The left-hander, who began the fortnight at No. 27 in the ATP Rankings, had never faced the No. 1 player in the ATP Rankings before. And the next time it happens, he does not want to walk off the court without taking a victory with him.
“I do want to compete against these guys in the future, in the near future. It's about physically getting ready for these types of matches. I think just getting used to it,” Shapovalov said. “The first couple times you play these guys, obviously you're going to be a lot more tight. After a while, a third, fourth time you start playing them, you know what it's like already, and I'll have some expectations going into the match knowing what it's like on a court like this. I think I'm not going to be as nervous. I'm really happy that I can take this match and really learn from it.”
It’s not as if Shapovalov didn’t put on a good show on Rod Laver Arena. The Canadian made an uncharacteristic 32 unforced errors in the first two sets, allowing Djokovic to just play solid tennis. But after falling behind by a break in the third set, the #NextGenATP star relaxed a bit, dictating points and showing the level that helped him reach two ATP Masters 1000 semi-finals (2017 Montreal & 2018 Madrid).
“With the third set, that's when I finally started to kind of let loose,” Shapovalov said. “I found my serve starting to go again. I was able to really show my ‘A’ game. But with the first two sets being that tight, just that little bit nervous, it just drained me in the end.”
What made it even more difficult was not just that Shapovalov started off a bit nervous, but who he did so against. Djokovic made 24 less unforced errors than the Canadian, forcing him to play his best to have a chance.
“He doesn't give you much. He doesn't give you anything, to be honest. You have to be there the whole match, every point. If you have any dips, he's going to take advantage of it,” Shapovalov said. “That's why he's so good, No. 1 in the world. I felt that a little bit. Definitely mentally a little bit tired right now. Kind of want to take a nap.”
Djokovic was nothing but complimentary of the teenager. While he was not thrilled that he did not close out the match in straight sets, the Serbian lauded Shapovalov for battling all the way through their two-hour, 22-minute encounter.
“He's got a pretty complete game. He's got the big serve, a lot of rotation on the ball. He can hit it flat. He can hit it with a spin. I like his mentality. I like his confidence in himself, his approach. He's very positive on the court, always backing himself up. I like that,” Djokovic said. “Obviously he's lacking some experience playing on the big stage in the big matches, but that's going to come. I like the way he plays. He seems like a guy who dedicates a lot of time to training and to the process of understanding how he can improve. These kind of experiences can only help him.”
And for Shapovalov, while he’d much rather be celebrating an upset over the top seed, he still enjoyed the moment. It is something he will take with him for the rest of his life.
“It was an amazing atmosphere. It was great to have so many supporters… late in the third set, they were really rooting for me, helped me pull that set out I feel,” Shapovalov said. “It was so much fun to play on such a big court with such an amazing crowd. Like I said, it was a dream come true for me. It was so much fun.”
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